Economists are increasingly worried that the Federal Reserve's policies may be causing a deeper recession than necessary and risking market stability and millions of jobs. During Paul Volcker's tenure, unemployment was above 10% for nine consecutive months, and mortgage rates reached almost 17%.
Since becoming Federal Reserve Chair in 2018, Jerome Powell has been carrying around Paul Volcker's memoir, "Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government," and has even joked about buying 500 copies to distribute at the Fed. However, now that inflation is spiking sharply, critics are concerned that Powell may be following an outdated Volcker playbook, tightening too much and too fast, and driving the economy into a deeper-than-needed recession.
Powell has repeatedly referenced Volcker's memoir, pledging to "keep at it" until inflation slows down. He has also criticized the stop-and-start Fed policy of the 1970s, which bred stagflation, prolonged inflation, and stagnant growth. On Wednesday, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in six months, pushing the federal-funds rate to a target range of 3.75% to 4%, the highest level since the Great Recession.
While Fed officials hinted that they may slow the pace of hikes in December, Powell has not backed away from his hawkish stance, suggesting that the Fed may ultimately move rates to even higher levels than projected in September. He warned that the risk is doing too little rate-hiking, not too much, and that the Fed has the tools to support economic activity if it over-tightens. In the 1970s and early 1980s, expectations of high inflation became entrenched, leading to prolonged inflation and demands for higher wages to cover future inflation.
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